Wisp Resort / McHenry

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McHenry, MD

Forecast Discussion



... Rain associated with post-tropical cyclone Ian will move eastward slowly this morning before subsiding in the afternoon.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Rain showers, within the deformation zone of post-tropical Ian, will continue throughout the morning in the vicinity of the Laurel Highland. Rainfall rates associated with these showers will remain light to moderate. An additional 0.50 to 0.75 inches are expected to fall through 6am. Sites along the Cheat River will continue to rise throughout the morning, but flooding chances will remain low as amount fall below flash flood guidance.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... The remnants of Ian will decay through the late morning/early evening as dry air north of the Great Lakes is advected swd, and the remnant low opens and tracks east. Cloud coverage will decrease from west to east and a few areas may see some sunshine just before sunset.

Monday morning will start off cool as clouds continue to thin throughout the night and sfc cooling amplifies. Forest County could experience patchy frost and may need an Advisory. Quiet, dry weather is anticipated late Monday morning through the early evening as high pressure builds over the Ohio River Valley.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure will remain over the OH Valley Monday night through Thurs, seasonable temperatures will likely return during the day. However, clear sky and a drastic drop in low-level moisture may lead to favorable conditions for radiational cooling overnight, with the potential for frost.

Ensembles suggest a shift in the overall atmospheric pattern late next week as mature low pressure system south of Alaska amplifies an elongated downstream ridge over the Plains, leading to the intrusion of unseasonably cold air into the Great Lakes region. This air mass may warrant frost or freeze headlines for part of the region next weekend.