Wisp Resort / McHenry

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McHenry, MD

Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Outside of light snow and flurries north of Pittsburgh overnight, dry conditions are expected the remainder of the work week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Marginal low level instability overnight will result in isolated snow showers or flurries mainly north of PGH overnight. There will be no meaningful accumulation as BL moisture is very shallow and does not extend into the DGZ. Winds will remain relatively strong overnight with a tight pressure gradient and absence of a nocturnal inversion.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Dry air advection will gradually diminish snow showers and clouds in northwest Pennsylvania through the morning on Thursday. Cold air aloft will limit daytime highs to around 10 degrees below their respective climatological averages. Radiational cooling Thursday night will be rather efficient with weak surface winds and a few high clouds; temperatures will respond by dipping 5-10 degrees below average.

Friday, temperature will ramp up back to near-normal with the reestablishment of southerly flow and warm advection. Skies will remain mostly clear with a high pressure ridge to the southeast.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Another cold frontal passage on Saturday will return chances of precipitation. Temperatures Sunday will be near average under high pressure.

Next weak, an Alaskan ridge will weaken in amplitude and the response will be a weak western trough and Atlantic ridge. This will embed the eastern US in a transition zone. Current guidance indicates the maintenance of a surface trough of low pressure that may provide a period of unsettled weather for the beginning of next week.

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