Wisp Resort / McHenry

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McHenry, MD

Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Rain south of Morgantown will end overnight, with dry weather expected elsewhere. Shower and thunderstorm chances are expected Thursday afternoon with a reinforcing cold front. Dry weather is then expected through the weekend under high pressure.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Showers S of MGW should end overnight as a quasi stationary front exits the area as a cold front as the flow aloft becomes NW. Dry weather is expected elsewhere overnight as sfc ridging briefly builds in. Areas of fog are expected, especially S of PIT, where more favorable low level moisture is in place N of the front.

A deepening upper trough is expected to track across the Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley region Thursday, as a reinforcing cold front crosses the area from N-S. Isolated showers/psbl tstms are expected along and just ahead of the front S of I 80 by afternoon, though limited moisture and instability should preclude a greater coverage. Coverage could be slightly more in the scattered range S of PIT with better instability, though coverage should still be limited. Less humid conditions are expected after FROPA, with dew pts falling into the 50s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A shower or two may linger along the southeast ridges at sunset as the front crosses, but these will then quickly exit.

Building surface high pressure will then provide quiet weather overnight Thursday through Friday night, with below-normal temperatures and refreshing humidity levels. Some isolated fair- weather cumulus are possible Friday, but abundant sunshine is forecast otherwise.

Another mostly sunny day is expected Saturday under high pressure, with temperatures recovering a degree or two.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Models and ensembles are projecting a reinforcement of the trough over the northeast CONUS as shortwaves dive into the Ohio Valley, with the operational GFS/ECMWF runs hinting at the development of a closed 500mb low by the middle of next week. This pattern points to potential for scattered showers and near to below-normal temperatures from Sunday through at least Wednesday. Closed low development could lead to even cooler temperatures than currently progged.

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